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 Post subject: Analsis
PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:19 pm 
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Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 9:48 am
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I have run my last 250 actual results through the system to find the best plan and settings. XYZ gives me £378.56 profit and a ROI of 4.43.
Kelly gives £232.46 profit and 12.04 ROI.

However, When run through the confidence check XYZ always comes up with "better than expected results" but Kelly is always "expected results".
My question is; is it better to go with XYZ or Kelly?

Hope someone can advise, thanks
BW


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 Post subject: kelly
PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:33 am 
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Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:16 pm
Posts: 591
Location: London
Note that kelly confidence test will always produce expected result as it does not matter what order the bets are in.

The XYZ plan is sequence based. If the XYZ confidence staking plan is ALWAYS coming up with "Better than Expected Results" than I would be careful using that setup going forward.

Try shuffling the data (Master Table - Editing Extras) yourself so that you can see how a change in sequence will effect your results.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:23 am 
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Thanks for that. I will try it.
BW


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 Post subject: Confidence Test
PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:01 pm 
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The confidence test itself is nothing amazing. It simply shuffles the data and records the cumulative total and ROI for each set of results 5 times. The average cumulative total and average ROI is then compared to your original data.

There are other forms of confidence testing but personally I find this the most simple and honest way of doing it.


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