thestakingmachine.com

[tpanos]

Hi,
I am new to the forum I registered today.

I am betting on soccer, based on strong statistical past indexes.

One of my strategies is based on Over/Under BetFair inplay events.
All my calculations have been done on the Betfair betting historical data of 15.765 matches that were inplay during the last 2 years.
This is a back then lay strategy with strike rate of 72%, it gives a profit of 1.23% on all past 15.765 matches.

For the time, I am using flat betting (same stake for all my bets), all my bets are independent. If I would use a staking plan, I could not bet on the concurrent events of the weekend.

As many events run concurrently (during the weekend), I am transforming my strategy to bet in 10 parallel series, each one with its own parameters and the same staking plan (I think so for the moment) in each series.

I will give you an example:
Series1 Series2 Series1 Series4 ..... Series10
game1 game2 game3 game1 ..... game10
game11 game12 game13 game14 ..... game20
game21 game22 game23 game24..... game30

.......all matches that fit in my strategy

So, I will be able to bet on matches that run concurrently, even during the weekend.

game1, game2,... are contained in BetFair live coupons.

So, Series1 (g1, g11, g21,...) will have its P/L, its staking plan, may be its own bank.

Questions:
1. Does anybody has experience in betting in multiple series?
1a. Do you think that multiple series will decrease the consecutive loses as bets are spread in 10 series?

2. I would like to find the best fitted staking plan for my strategy (strike 72%, total profit 1.23% in flat betting). Do you want more info on that?

3. TSM can be of any help for what I described above?


Thank you in advance for your time

Theodore

[support]

I understand what your trying to do. It is not something i have much experience at. To record it in TSM you would either have to have 10 seperate TSM files or use 10 different filters. You would then be able to record all the bets in 1 file.

With regards to consecutive losses. I am not a mathematician but what knowledge i have built up i do not think it will make any difference whatsoever as each bet is independent of eachother.

If you have a good history of data, (15000 bets ?) then you should be able to be pretty confident when choosing a staking plan. Its just a case of how much risk you want to introduce and managing the month when a particular series loses every bet.

[tpanos]

Thank you for your response.
It seems that, as the bets are independent, I have to choose a plan where i.e. I recalculate my profit every 100 bets and apply the algorithm on the next 100 bets.
My strategy is back (then lay) with strike rate of 72% and profit 1.23% without plan, equal stakes.
Do you have any idea where to look for a plan for the above strategy?

My Historical data are not 15.000 bets but matches (data.betfair.com) with 1.500.000 bets. As you noticed, I would like to manage my "bad" periods (to make them better perhaps)!

I didn't find yet a community that is involved with this kind of soccer statistical betting. Does anybody know if such a community exist?[/b]

[alfaman]

Hi tpanos,

I'am a statistic addicted to . I downlad it loads of data from the same source. I may know what youre talking abaut 0/U 2.5 markets.
I have most of the powerfull softwares out there and use it with succes most of them based on history data. I have ups and downs but overall its net profit if use it with youre head.
We can speak more in private if you like .