It’s been nearly 18 months since we last wrote about The Bet Plan. In all that time, The Bet Plan remains profitable. In that time The Staking Machine also known as TSM, has evolved into Version 4.0. The most recent feature to have been added is the Monte Carlo Style Confidence Test. And that is what I want to look at in this blog post. The data I am going to use is 2011 and 2012 data up to and including 30/09/2012 taken from their selection system. In total that includes over 1200 bets. What I particularly want to look at is the staking plan that The Bet Plan team recommends. If you want to conduct your own analysis you can download the files below -

The win/lose string to represent a win is “W”. So you will need to edit your win/lose strings if you want look at the data yourself.
EarlyPricesBetPlan2011-Sep2012.TSM

The Bet plan recommends using a ratchet mode percentage staking plan. A ratchet mode means the stake cannot decrease. It can only increase relative to the size of the bank. For example if you start with £200 and choose to bet 2% of the bank your starting stake would be £4. If you win the bank increases. And so does your stake. If you lose, the bank decreases. But your stakes remains at £4.

Let’s plug the 2011 and 2012 data into TSM Version 4.0. It should be noted that the data is Early Prices with bookmakers. This is what The Bet Plan recommends. When they email you the day’s selections they also tell you which bookmaker is offering the best early odds. Remember in TSM you can turn commission off as we are using bookmakers. Before going onto the Monte Carlo Feature let’s look at the quick stats of the data.We have over 1200 bets with a strike rate of 47.5%. Most importantly we have a good edge of 6.32%. Bet Plan Quick Stats

Let’s get to the Monte Carlo Feature. This feature allows us to risk assess our current staking plan settings. In very simple terms, we randomise the data and record the results. We then do this, hundreds of times, preferably thousands of times and we build up a picture of the range of results we can expect. When plotted in graph form we can visually see with our own eyes how much risk is associated with a staking plan.

So let’s look at the Bet Plan Data. The recommended staking plan can be created in TSM using The Percentage Staking Plan and turning on the ratchet mode. Let’s start with a realistic start bank of £200 and the stake as 1% of the start bank.
The Bet Plan Percentage Staking Plan

The Monte Carlo feature can be found under Confidence Test on the main tool bar in TSM. With a bet sample of just over 1200 it can be time consuming to run thousands of simulations. So I’ve done the research for you, using a simulation size of 10,000. This takes about 30 minutes to run. You cannot use TSM whilst the simulation is running. I cheated when I ran I researched this. I had several instances of TSM open to speed things up. I have increased the percentage to stake by 0.5% each time up to 5%.

% of Bank Staked Average Total Average ROI Actual Total Actual ROI No. Bankrupt Sims. Bankruptcy %
1 232 6 231 5 0 0
1.5 458 5 385 4 11 0.11%
2 691 6 687 4 227 2.27%
2.5 1063 5 1047 4 1234 12.34%
3 1547 5 1528 3 3135 31.35%
3.5 2160 5 2147 3 5503 55.03%
4 2954 5 2911 2 7535 75.35%
4.5 3679 4 3791 2 8942 89.42%
5 4313 4 4689 2 9665 96.65%

You can see that a 1% ratchet based staking plan gives almost a 100% chance of avoiding bankrupcty. The chance increases to 0.11% if the ratchet increases to 1.5%. Using a 2% ratchet based staking plan gives us a 2.27% chance of bankrupcty. Once we get up to 3.5% ratchet based system our chance of bankruptcy is over 50%. Further analysis can be gained by looking at the frequency distribution chart produced for each run of simulations.

This graph shows the 2.5% ratchet based staking plan. Hopefully you can see how the total profit distibution is heavily skewed to a profit range of over £1000. And this is reflected in the average profit which is £1063. Just by looking at the graph we can see that over 6000 simulations produced a profit of around £1200. There is a 60% chance of making £1200 profit. There is a 40% chance of making less than that. Referring back to the table above. In all cases, there is just over 12% of becoming bankrupt at some point. By this we mean your stake will be larger than your remaining bank.
2.5 Percent Ratchet Based Staking Plan

Hopefully you can see how this Monte Carlo Style Feature can assist you when choosing the right staking plan to use. Thanks to The bet Plan for letting themselves be disected. If you want to join in the profits you can have a closer look at the TheBetPlan Website.

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Oct 2, 2012 By csoftware

Windows Desktop TSM Version 6.0

Evaluation version of TSM is restricted to 10 bets at any one time. No time restrictions in place. 

Web Based Version - TSMapp 6.0

Login as Demo User. Restriction of 10 bets at any one time.