Whitaker Staking Plan
The Whitaker Staking Plan. TSM uses Version 3 of the Whitaker Staking Plan.
An earlier version is available as a subset of the Secure Staking Plan. The Secure Staking Plan splits up your bets into their respective odds ranges. Each odds range is then given an individual stake amount. The idea behind this is to have lower stakes on the bets with high-odds and higher stakes on bets with low-odds.
Think of it as multiple Level Staking Plans split over different odds ranges combined into a single staking plan. The result is a safe and low risk staking plan.
Whitaker Version 3
Whitaker Version 3 (as in TSM) has a slight twist in that the stake for each bet is now directly linked to the odds of each bet. It does this by converting the bet odds into the implied Strike Rate and then calculating the Expected Losing Sequence (E.L.S.) for that Strike Rate. It then gives the E.L.S. a multiple so that our start bank can deal with multiple losing runs of the E.L.S. figure. Usually, the multiple is anywhere from 4 to 10. The Start Bank is then divided by this number (E.L.S. x Multiple) in order to determine the stake.
Previously with the Secure Staking Plan, the odds value was confined to a range, with a predetermined stake. But now, in the latest Whitaker Staking Plan , each odds value now has its own unique stake that is relative to your start bank and the implied strike rate for those bet odds.
The Calculations
Betting Bank
E.L.S. of Implied Strike Rate x E.L.S. Multiplier
= Stake
- Betting Bank: Initially this is the start bank – let’s call this £100.
- Implied Strike Rate: Lets assume our bet odds are 4. The implied strike rate is simply 1 divided by the bet odds. So in our example, 1 divided by 4. This makes our implied strike rate = 0.25 or 25%.
- E.L.S. of Implied Strike Rate: The E.LS. is calculated using some clever maths. TSM users will be familar with the E.L.S. as we have had access to a built in E.L.S. Calculator for many years. When we calculate the E.L.S. we have to decide how large our sample set should be. In this example we use a sample of size of 10,000 bets. Plug this in to the E.L.S. Calculator and the E.L.S. is 32 for odds of 4. Read more on E.L.S. in TSM.
- E.L.S. Multiplier: This is used to protect the bank. A number from 4 – 10 is often used. If we use 4, then this means we can expect our betting bank to withstand 4 losing sequences of 32 bets in a row before going bankrupt. In this exampe we will use 4.
£100
32 x 4
= £0.78
What happens if we bet on something with shorter odds. For example 1.5.
Odds of 1.5 implies a 66.66% Strike Rate. That gives us an E.L.S. of 8.4 for 10,000 bets.
£100
8.4 x 4
= £2.98
So we can immediately see the difference in size of stakes from a bet with odds of 4 when compared to a bet with odds of 1.5.
TSM Settings
As you would expect all the settings mentioned above can be edited in TSM. On the Default Whitaker Settings tab there is another option called Stake Divisor. This simply divides the calculated stake further – keep it at one (1) if you don’t want additional reduction.
There is also the option to Link the Calculated Stake to the Cumulative Total. Instead of a using the fixed start bank throughout, we can use the cumulative total itself. This means that as the cumulative total increases, as will the stakes.
My preferred betting method is to re‑adjust stakes after every betting day. That way, you can place multiple bets simultaneously (e.g., football bets), knowing the calculated stakes will be accurate.
We can tell TSM that it is the end of the betting day by adding the code <LB> to the selection text. TSM will then use the current cumulative total for next series of bets.
Additional TSM Tweaks
One of the principles of this staking plan is that each bet placed has its own probability of winning. However, in an ideal world every bet placed in our selection system would have the same probability of winning. Sometimes it isn’t necessary to reduce the stake simply because the odds are higher. If we have a selection system with high odds that win more than their implied strike rate then we would be missing out on profits. Effectively capping the selection systems edge. To counter that, TSM has added a Minimum Stake option that is set as a percentage of the cumulative total.
We have also added a Loss Recovery Option into the staking plan. Similar to Bookies Bank in that as soon as your current betting series is negative, Recovery Mode is entered. A Stake Multiplier is then used on the next stakes until such as point the series is positive or the Recovery Mode Bet Limit is reached. This can be as aggressive or passive as per your own risk threshold.
Screenshots
The example above uses the settings we used earlier in our example. Bet 239 actually has odds of 4 and you see the calculated stake is £0.78.
Note : In TSM in order to calculate the next stake for staking plans that require the bet odds we use the ‘awaits result’ string. At default this is simply the string ‘awaits’. Bet 245 has an awaits result string and a calculated next stake of £0.82.
In the example below I have linked the cumultive total to the stake. I have also used a minimum stake of 1% of the cumulative total. We can see the cumultive total has increased by almost £30.
In the final example we are using the Loss Recovery Mode with Recovery Stake Multiple of 1.25 and a recovery bet limit of 4.
We can see the cumulative total is now almost £190. Note – You can see in the Quick Stats Mini Graph that we haven’t introduced any drawdowns of note. The line is more or less gently pushing upwards across the x axis.
Although the Minimum Stake and the Recovery Option in TSM for the Whitaker Staking Plan is not officially part of the Whitaker Staking Plan we hope you will find them useful in your betting.
