Certain Profit Staking Plan
History
The Certain Profit Staking Plan has been sent to me under different names numerous times over the years. Although it could be added as an add-on to XYZ or Up X Down Y, it makes more sense to add it into TSM on its own merit so that it is easier to compare results.
How Does it Work?
The idea is that each series of bets will keep going indefinitely until a ‘certain’ profit is made. That ‘certain’ profit is whatever you have set as the initial target in points. In order to achieve this certain profit, stakes are increased by 1 point after each bet. There are exceptions to this as we see below. However essentially this is an aggressive recovery staking plan.
- If a bet loses always add one point to the outstanding points running number.
- If a bet wins, always deduct the profit from the outstanding points running number.
- The stake for each bet is always one point higher than the previous bet BUT not higher than 1 point more than the outstanding points running number.
The series is reset when the outstanding points running number is less than or equal to zero.
In TSM the settings available are as below. Traditionally no stop loss is applied to this staking plan which is a big ‘no’ when it comes to any recovery staking plan. We have added a stop loss option. Sometimes you will be in profit overall but still have outstanding points to achieve. Therefore, an alternative target option where the series can reset if you make a percentage of your cumulative total has also been added.
Example 1
Looking at very basic example we can see how the system works. Start Bank is £100 and 1 Point is £1 (1% of £100).
Bet 1 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) Column increases by 2 to from 0 to 2. (£1 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £1 to £2.
Bet 2 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) Column increases by 3 from 2 to 5. (£2 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £2 to £3.
Bet 3 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column increases by 4 from 5 to 9 (£3 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £3 to £4.
Bet 4 wins at odds of 2.5. Profit is £6. Oustanding Points (O.Points) column decreases from 9 to 4 (-£6 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £4 to £5.
Bet 5 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column increases from 4 to 10 (£5 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £5 to £6.
Bet 6 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column increases from 10 to 17 (£6 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £6 to £7.
Bet 7 wins at odds of 3. Profit is £14. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column decreases from 17 to 4 (-£14 + 1). Stake increases by 1 Point from £7 to £8. However, this is larger than the Outstanding Points + 1 point (4 + 1 point = 5) therefore the stake decreases instead to the Outstanding Points + 1 Point value of £5.
Bet 8 loses. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column increases from 4 to 10 (£5 + 1 Point). Stake increases by 1 Point from £5 to £6.
Bet 9 wins at odds of 2. Profit is £6. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column decreases from 10 to 5 (-£6 + 1 point). Stake increases by 1 point from £6 to £7. However, this is larger than the Outstanding Points + 1 point (5 + 1 point = 6) therefore the stake decreases instead to the Outstanding Points + 1 Point value of £6.
Bet 10 win at odds of 2. Profit is £6. Outstanding Points (O.Points) column decreases from 5 to 0 (-£6 + 1). Therefore, our target has been achieved and the series is reset.
Alternative Target
In the next screenshot we will keep the same settings and example bets, but this time set an Alternative Target of 2%. This is taken from the previous series reset. In this instance, the start bank of £100 / 100 % 2 = £2.
The Alternative Target is hit on bet 7 where the series profit hits £3. The series resets on Bet 8 and goes on to hit the default target on bet 10.
Static/ Dynamic Points
We can choose whether the Points target changes as the cumulative total changes. When ‘Link Stake to Cumulative Total’ is ticked, the points value is recalculated at every series reset.
Using the same set of bets and settings as before, the series is reset at Bet 8. The value of 1 point going forward is therefore £103/ 100 * 2 = £1.03.
We can also tell TSM to reset the series at any given point. Normally this would be used to indicate the last bet of the day.
I have added the code <LB> to bet 5 selection string. This tells TSM that is the last bet of the day. The series is reset on Bet 6 and 1 Point value is recalculated.
Stop Loss
The last setting to cover is the Stop Loss. This is set and calculated in points.
We can see in the screenshot below; the stop loss is hit at bet 5. The series resets for bet 6 onwards.
Final Words
Without a stop loss, this staking plan is an extremely aggressive recovery staking plan that comes with a high amount of caution. However, when used with a sensible stop loss there is no doubt it can work well with a high strike rate selection system. As always, do your own research and make sure you are happy with the risk threshold before using real money.
