Expected Losing Sequence - E.L.S.

The Expected Losing Sequence can be used to calculate our start bank and start stake and ensure that we avoid bankruptcy. 

For instance, if you know your Expected Losing Sequence is 10 then your start bank needs to be able to handle this losing run and more !

Using a Level Stakes Staking Plan you might want a start bank of 2 x E.L.S. So if our E.L.S. was 10 then the start bank would needs to be 2 x 10. On this occasion the start bank would need to be 20x our start stake. Assuming a start stake of £10 – you would need a start bank of £200 to be able to deal with the Expected Losing Sequence.

Some people will go even further and virtualy eliminate the chance of bankruptcty by using a start bank of 3 or 4  x E.L.S.

The equation used to calculate the Expected Losing Sequence is:

Log(n)/-log(1-SR)= E.L.S.

If you want to have a play around yourself you can use Microsoft Excel and copy paste this formula :


n = number of bets

SR = strike rate as a percentage

Our sister software – The Bet Machine – TBM was released in 2020.  Every Back/Lay Staking Plan and Setting in TSM is available to use in The Bet Machine.

Used in conjunction with Gruss Betting Assistant, TBM is compatible with both Betfair and Betdaq Betting Exchange.

TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. 

Create your own Horse and Greyhound Selection Systems in TBM by using the built in System Builder tool – Selection Hunter. Back Test your designed systems and find your edge.