Lay Percentage Recovery Liab (Lay % Rec Liab) Staking Plan
The Lay Percentage Recovery Liability Staking Plan (Lay % Rec Liab) aims to recover your losses over a set number of cycles and bets. It is similar to the standard Lay Percentage Recovery Staking Plan but instead of staking to a percentage of the bank we adjust the initial stake for percentage of liability of the bank. Once in a Recovery Cycle we can either continue to stake to a liability or revert to standard staking.
The settings below are set for 5% Liability of the Start Bank. This means the liability of the first bet will be £5. No other settings are checked and we are using liability even in a recovery cycle.
Staking Plan Example Settings
Staking Plan Example Results
The odds of the first bet are 4.2. Our first stake is calculated as liability divided by odds -1.
£5 / (4.2 -1) = £1.56
The bet wins. The next bet is therefore the same method.
£5 / (3.1-1) = £2.38
This bet loses. The series deficit is £5 and we now enter the 1st Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£5 / 4 = £1.25
This is our liability for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). Note that unless the odds of each bet are under 2 you will not recover the full series deficit using these settings.
The odds for the 3rd bet is 4.2. Therefore the stake is
£1.25 / (4.2-1 ) = £0.39
This bet also loses. This means our series deficit is now £5 + £1.25 = £6.25
We now enter the 2nd Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£6.25 / 4 = £1.57
This is our liability for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). Note once more that unless the odds of each bet are under 2 you will not recover the full series deficit using these settings.
The odds for the 4th bet is 3.19. Therefore our stake is
£1.57 / (3.19-1) = £0.71
This bet wins. We are now on bet 2 of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 5 odds are 2.8. The stake is therefore
£1.57 / (2.8-1) = £0.87
This bet also wins. We now move onto the 3rd bet of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 6 odds are 1.95. This means the stake is
£1.57 / (1.95-1) = £1.64
This bet loses. This means that we would go into a 3rd Recovery Cycle if our settings allowed us. However our settings are set as 2 (cycles). Therefore we exit the Recovery Cycle and start again whilst cutting our losses.
Bet 7 Odds are 2.81. This means our stake is
£5 / (2.81 -1) = £2.76
The important part to take away from these settings is that you will never recover the series deficit if your average odds are greater than 2. This is because we are staking to a liability even in a Recovery Cycle. In Example 2 we will look at what happens when we revert to default staking during a recovery cycle.
The settings below are set for 5% Liability of the Start Bank. This means the liability of the first bet will be £5. No other settings are checked and we are using normal staking (not liability) when in a recovery cycle.
Staking Plan Example
Staking Plan Example Results
The odds of the first bet are 4.2. This means our first stake is calculated as liability divided by odds -1.
£5 / (4.2 -1) = £1.56
The bet wins. The next bet is therefore the same again.
£5 / (3.1-1) = £2.38
This bet loses. The series deficit is £5.
We now enter the 1st Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£5 / 4 = £1.25
This is the stake for each of the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). If all 4 bets win then we recover the £5 series loss.
When using normal staking the odds are not important.
Bet 3 is therefore £1.25.
The bet also loses. This means our series deficit is now £5 + £4 = £9
We now enter the 2nd Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£9 / 4 = £2.25
This is our stake for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win).
As we are using normal staking the odds for bet 4 is not important. The stake will always be £2.25. The bet wins.
We are now on bet 2 of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 5 stake is again £2.25.
This bet also wins. We now move onto the 3rd bet of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 6 stake is again £2.25.
This bet loses. This means that we would go into a 3rd Recovery Cycle if our settings allowed us. However our settings are set as 2 (cycles). Therefore we exit the Recovery Cycle and start again whilst cutting our losses.
Bet 7 Odds are 2.81. As this is not in a recovery cycle we bet to liability again. This means our stake is
£5 / (2.81 -1) = £2.76
In Example 3 we will look at what happens when we revert attempt to recover our initial stake as well as the series deficit during a recovery cycle.
The settings below are set for 5% Liability of the Start Bank. This means the liability of the first bet will be £5. We also have ‘Recover Initial Stake for Every Bet‘ ticked. This means that when we enter a recovery cycle, not only do we aim to recover the series deficit but we also add on the initial stake. In the settings below we are using liability staking even in a recovery cycle.
Staking Plan Example Settings
Staking Plan Example Results
The odds of the first bet is 4.2. This means our first stake is calculated as liability divided by odds -1.
£5 / (4.2 -1) = £1.56
The bet wins. The next bet is therefore the same again.
£5 / (3.1-1) = £2.38
This bet loses. The series deficit is £5.
We now enter the 1st Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£5 / 4 = £1.25
This is our liability for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). Note that unless the odds of each bet are under 2 you will not recover the full series deficit using these settings.
The odds for the 3rd bet is 4.2. Therefore the stake is
£1.25 / (4.2-1 ) = £0.39
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (4.2-1) = £1.56
Total Stake for Bet 3 is therefore
£0.39 + £1.56 = £1.95.
This bet also loses. This means our series deficit is now £5 + £6.24 = £11.24
We now enter the 2nd Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£11.24 / 4 = £2.81
This is our liability for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). Note once more that unless the odds of each bet are under 2 you will not recover the full series deficit using these settings.
The odds for the 4th bet is 3.19. Therefore our stake is
£2.81 / (3.19-1) = £1.28
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (3.19-1) = £2.29
Total Stake for Bet 3 is therefore
£1.28 + £2.29 = £3.57
This bet wins. We are now on bet 2 of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 5 odds are 2.8. The stake is therefore
£2.81 / (2.8-1) = £1.56
Plus Initial Stake
£5 / (2.8-1) = £2.78
Total Stake For Bet 5 is £1.56 + £2.78 = £4.34
This bet also wins. We now move onto the 3rd bet of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 6 odds are 1.95. This means the stake is
£2.81 / (1.95-1) = £2.96
Plus the Initial stake
£5/ (1.95-1) = £5.26
Total stake For bet 6
£2.96 + £5.26 = £8.22
This bet loses. This means that we would go into a 3rd Recovery Cycle if our settings allowed us. However our settings are set as 2 (cycles). Therefore we exit the Recovery Cycle and start again whilst cutting our losses.
Bet 7 Odds are 2.81. This means our stake is
£5 / (2.81 -1) = £2.76
The important part to take away from these settings is that as per Example 1, you will never recover the series deficit if your average odds are greater than 2. This is because we are staking to a liability even in a Recovery Cycle. In Example 4 we will look at what happens when we revert to default staking during a recovery cycle whilst trying to ‘Recover the Initial Stake’.
The settings below are set for 5% Liability of the Start Bank. This means the liability of the first bet will be £5. We also have ‘Recover Initial Stake for Every Bet‘ ticked. This means that when we enter a recovery cycle, not only do we aim to recover the series deficit but we also add on the initial stake. In the settings below we are using normal staking if we are in a recovery cycle.
Staking Plan Example Settings
Staking Plan Example Results
The odds of the first bet is 4.2. This means our first stake is calculated as liability divided by odds -1.
£5 / (4.2 -1) = £1.56
The bet wins. The next bet is therefore the same again.
£5 / (3.1-1) = £2.38
This bet loses. The series deficit is £5.
We now enter the 1st Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£5 / 4 = £1.25
This is our stake for each of the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win). If all 4 bets win then we recover the £5 series loss.
When using normal staking the odds are not important when calculating the recovery stake part.
Bet 3 is therefore £1.25.
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (4.2-1) = £1.56
Total Stake for Bet 3 is therefore
£1.25 + £1.56 = £2.81.
The bet also loses. This means our series deficit is now £5 + £8.99 = £13.99
We now enter the 2nd Recovery Cycle over 4 bets.
£13.99 / 4 = £3.5
This is our stake for the next 4 recovery bets (if they all win).
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (3.19-1) = £2.28
Total Stake for Bet 4 is therefore
£3.5 + £2.28 = £5.78.
Bet 4 wins. We now move onto the 2nd bet of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. As we using normal staking the odds for the first part of bet 5 is not important. The stake will always be £3.5.
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (2.8-1) = £2.78
Total Stake for Bet 5 is therefore
£3.5 + £2.78 = £6.27
The bet wins. We now move onto the 3rd bet of the 2nd Recovery Cycle. Bet 6 stake is again £3.5.
Because we have ‘Recover Initial Stake For Every Bet’ ticked we also have to add in our normal stake. In this instance this is £5 / (1.95-1) = £5.26.
Total Stake = £3.5 + £5.26 = £8.76
This bet loses. This means that we would go into a 3rd Recovery Cycle if our settings allowed us. However our settings are set as 2 (cycles). Therefore we exit the Recovery Cycle and start again whilst cutting our losses.
Bet 7 Odds are 2.81. As this is not in a recovery cycle we bet to liability again. This means our stake is
£5 / (2.81 -1) = £2.76
Link Initial Stake To Cumulative Bank
Additional Options include the ability to Link the Initial Stake of each new series to the cumulative total. This means that as the Cumulative Total increases, so does your initial liability. If the Cumulative Total decreases then your initial liability will decrease.
Staking Plan Example Settings
Staking Plan Example Results
Bet 1 starts the same as the other examples with a stake of £1.56. The bet wins. As we are not in a Recovery Cycle the 5% liability is recalculated against the the new cumulative total of £101.53.
£101.53 / 100 * 5 = £5.07
This means the stake for Bet 2 is
£5.07 / (3.1 -1) = £2.42
The next time the liability can be recalculated is Bet 7 as we came out of the recovery cycle in bet 6.
The Cumulative Total after Bet 6 was £90.05.
This means the new 5% Liability is 90.05/ 100 * 5 = 4.5
Bet 7 stake is therefore
4.5 / (2.81-1) = £2.49
Long term, providing your system has an edge to level stakes then this can be a nice way of increasing your cumulative total over time.
Increase Stakes to Recover Commission
Another additional setting is to increase stakes to recover any commission loss. Lay Betting is normally done on a betting exchange. Therefore there is commission to pay on any winning bets. When we pay commission we never actually recover the full series deficit due to the commission paid on each winning bet. We can increase all stakes to allow for a commission.
Staking Plan Example Settings
Staking Plan Example Results
The results above show with Recover Commission switched on. The Global Commission setting is 2%.
The 1st and 2nd bets are not recovery bets. Therefore the Recover Commission does not apply.
The 3rd bet is the first recovery bet. Instead of the stake being £1.98 it has been increased to £2.02 to allow for the 2% commission.
Recovery Percentage
This is an interesting setting that allows us to choose what percentage of any series loss we are going to attempt to recover. One way of using this setting is to increase the Recovery when using Recovery Liability when in a recovery cycle. When using Liability only, the series deficit will only be recovered in full if your average bet odds are <= 2. If your average bet odds are say 4 then we could use a recovery percentage of 200% to double the liability limit during a recovery cycle.
Our sister software – The Bet Machine – TBM was released in 2020. Every Back/Lay Staking Plan in TSM is available to use in The Bet Machine.
Used in conjunction with Gruss Betting Assistant, TBM is compatible with both Betfair and Betdaq Betting Exchange.
TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing.
Create your own Horse and Greyhound Selection Systems in TBM by using the built in System Builder tool – Selection Hunter. Back Test your designed systems and find your edge.